Thursday, February 7, 2013

Spanish Bond Auction Help Euro

Spanish Bond Auction Help Euro. The euro rose after Spain again managed to get more money when auctioning bonds although Madrid have to be willing to pay higher prices. Spain get funding € 4.6 billion; This is the maximum limit of the target. It also means that Spain has managed to secure 18% of the total funding requirement for the medium and long term. EUR / USD is now trading 1.3569, moving away from a daily low of 1.3502.

However, political scandal and protracted economic recession seems to work to force Spain to pay higher prices when selling government debt. It can be seen from the increase in 3-year bond yield of 2.476% to 2.823%. "Overall the results are quite satisfactory. Rise in bond yields is not only experienced by the Spanish but also by other euro-zone members over the euro-zone economy is now slumped in the recession," said Nicholas Spiro, director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy.

Sterling Gains in Early Speech Carney

Sterling rose as Mark Carney began to give a speech in front of the British parliament. Carney will replace Mervyn King as Governor of the Bank of England in July and the market wants to see what policies will be pursued Carney to ensure the continued recovery of the UK economy. So far, not so dovish speech Carney and sterling seemed to welcome it. GBP / USD is now trading 1.5738, moving away from a daily low of 1.5644

Carney had previously intimated that the BoE to take a more aggressive monetary policy further and even suggested to target inflation and GDP targeting central bank. BoE target only inflation as monetary policy objectives. However, in the hearing, Carney does not seem to want to change the BoE targets and this means that the UK central bank will still only focus on inflation. "There is a high prerequisite to change policy framework. Flexible inflation target remains the most effective policy framework," said Carney in front of the British parliament. The hearing is scheduled to last for 3 hours and the movement of sterling may be volatile as Carney gave her speech.

Keep BoE Interest Rate 0.5%

Back BoE kept interest rates at the level of 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £ 375 billion in the February meeting. This is according to predictions and unchanged from the previous meeting in January. Sterling did not change much after the data was released and apparently still struggling to maintain momentum reinforcement. GBP / USD is now trading 1.5715, try to stay away from the daily low of 1.5644. The threat is now looming recession the UK economy does not seem to be enough to force the central bank to provide more stimulus to the February meeting. BoE Meeting Minutes show in January, part of central bankers did not see a significant impact from the additional stimulus and worried about the stability of inflation above the target of 2%.

Nevertheless, the BoE stands ready to provide additional stimulus if needed especially with the economic outlook remains grim. "The economic recovery will be slow, but the recovery will be sustained. Was the decline in economic activity and the risk of inflation is still going up in the near future. Central bank is prepared to provide additional stimulus if needed," the BoE said in a statement released after the Bank of England keeping interest rates at low levels 0.5%.

5 Important Things Coming to New York Session
  1. Dreamliner Update: The focus of investors will be focused on the latest developments investigating the troubled Boeing, Dreamliner. Regulators will hold a press conference in Washington DC on new information damages the Boeing 787 were still exposed to fly to safety reasons. Share CFDs Boeing has dropped more than 2% since January due to losses caused by the no-fly Boeing aircraft.
  2. LinkedIn: One of the hot technology stocks, LinkedIn will report earnings after the closing session of the pace of Wall Street. Investors want to know whether the rate of return the company is still rising. LinkedIn shares themselves climbed 55% in the last 12 months, outpacing the performance of the Nasdaq gained about 9%. Profit is expected to grow as the number of subscribers growing to 200 million users.
  3. Economic Data: Economic data are awaited that jobless claims are expected to slightly decline to 2-week low at 360.000 level through the holiday season after a very volatile. If jobless claims released above 370,000, may indicate an adverse effect of the increase in U.S. tax deal post mini fiscal cliff on U.S. economic growth.
  4. ECB President: Attention will also be focused on the interest rate decision two European central banks, the ECB and BoE, because expectation no change in interest rates, the focus will mainly be on ECB President's speech, Mario Draghi on strengthening Euro lately.
  5. BoE Governor: Candidates for the new BoE Governor Mark Carney faces 3 hour question and answer session with British policy makers are expected to provide further details of how to stimulate the economy Carney later. In addition, the market participants can also see a signal of monetary easing through QE Carney whether additional or strategy such as that run the Fed, but with GDP or inflation targeting.
German Industrial Production Up

Letup euro-zone debt problems and the continuing momentum of economic growth in Germany seems to have a positive impact on the industrial sector. German industrial production rose 0.3% for the month of December; better-than-forecast 0.2% and -0.2% prior publications. Euro still retain gains after the data was released. EUR / USD is now trading 1.3568, the daily high near 1.3576 level. German Economy Ministry and even optimistic industry activity will continue to recover in the coming months. "The increasing demand for manufactured goods and improving business sentiment could imply immediate end weakness in the industrial sector," according to the German Economics Ministry statement.

Euro Pressured ahead of ECB meeting


The single currency Euro seems depressed trading in a narrow range on Thursday (7/2) ahead of the monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) as investors are also wary of the leadership of the central bank's outlook - Mario Draghi, the strengthening of the Euro lately. Euro range in the area of ​​1.3536 after falling to 1.3502 yesterday, while today they closed at 1.3523. Throughout the year 2013, the euro has appreciate more than 10% against the yen and 2.5% against the U.S. dollar (USD).

Collapse of the Euro yesterday came after a poll showed the political coalition of former Prime Minister of Italy Silvio Berlusconi has made progress. So it raised concerns over the current economic reforms pursued by the government of Prime Minister Mario Monti. While the ECB had been widely expected to maintain the policy interest rate will not change (unchanged), and a number of analysts await Mario Draghi views on strengthening Euro and whether it will be an effect on the economic recovery in the region.

UK manufacturing Try Suspend Sterling

Sterling rose on the London session after manufacturing data give hope will be avoiding the British economy from the brink of recession. Manufacturing output rose 1.6% for the month of December; better than the prediction of 0.8% and -0.3% prior publications. Industrial production increased 1.1% in late 2012; better than the prediction of 0.7% and 0.2% revised November publication. Trade deficit was also reduced from £ 9.3 billion to £ 8.9 billion. GBP / USD is now trading 1.5673, try to stay away from the daily low of 1.5644.

With a series of positive economic data then this can certainly provide hope for avoiding UK from recession for the third time in the last five years. However, sterling should still monitor the hearings Bank of England next leader, Mark Cartney, and also the results of the BoE monetary policy meeting to get further instructions will be the central bank's monetary policy outlook for the UK in the future.

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