Thursday, February 7, 2013

Failed to Save the Aussie Employment Data

Failed to Save the Aussie Employment Data. Aussie touched its weakest level since November against the U.S. currency after jobs data fails signaling improvements, so it's still keeping the RBA's outlook for monetary easing. Although the data show a decrease in unemployment and an increase in employment exceeded expectations, growth was dominated by part-time job. The number of part-time jobs increased by 20.2000, while the number of full-time employment dropped by 9800. "Details of the jobs data was less impressive when compared to the total, these factors weighing on the Aussie," said Mitul Kotecha, chief currency analyst at Credit Agricole SA in Hong Kong. "Even better than expected, most of the increase was driven by part-time job., And it will not be enough to change the change the RBA's perspective."

Euro Hit By Comments Draghi


The euro fell sharply against the U.S. dollar after ECB President Mario Draghi confirms the importance of the exchange rate to growth and price stability, which is considered by investors as a sign that the central bank started to worry about the movement of Euro lately. Previous French also have voiced concern over the appreciation of the Euro that may threaten exports and the recovery of the region. While the ECB policy meeting on Thursday still kept interest rates unchanged at 0.75%.

"Obviously if Draghi does not want euro moved higher," said Boris Schlossberg, director of manager at BK Asset Management in New York. "What's more, the French also continued to deliver strong pressure. Appreciation Euro has caused a lot of inconvenience."

U.S. crude oil futures likely to Go to $ 100 Per Barrel

U.S. crude oil futures continue strengthening in the session boosted Wall Street on Thursday to as low as $ 96.90 per barrel, compared to the previous day at the level of $ 96.77 per barrel as U.S. macroeconomic data releases are quite positive. Expectations of improvement in the world economy, particularly in China has been a major reason for the strengthening of oil a frequent target of speculative investors in the event of improved risk appetite. Especially in Europe, even though the economy is still weak, but the risk of rupture region has subsided significantly. Climate is an opportunity optimism rising oil prices up to 2 and 4 years.

Technically, intraday bias remains bullish oil, but it takes consistent penetration area above 97.70 - 98.50 to trigger further bullish momentum targeting 100.60 area in the short term. On the bottom side, the nearest support level appears in the area of ​​93.00 & 91.60.

Relieve Carney testimony Sterling

Pound has appreciated versus the greenback after the Bank of England governor candidate, Mark Carney, indicating little chance for extra loose monetary policy in the short term, prompting investors to cut short positions they took earlier. Sterling also reap the support of the UK industrial output data were better than expected. While it is not much market react to the BoE's decision to keep interest rates at 0.5% and QE at £ 375 targets billion.

Euro Not So Happy With ECB's Draghi

The euro slid after ECB's Draghi gave a weak economic assessment for the euro zone for the first half of 2013. "The weakening of economic activity will continue in early 2013. Economic Outlook remains weak due to low domestic demand and exports, as well as the outbreak of geopolitical issues. Risks that could undermine the optimism that there could delay economic recovery," said President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, in the early meet the press. EUR / USD is now trading 1.3480, moving away from a daily high level 1.3576.

Translucent EURUSD 1.3500 Level Responding Under Draghi's speech


EURUSD dropped sharply after Draghi said that the euro zone economy is still heading down, and most of the economic data signaled further weakness in the early 2013's, so it's still an opportunity Draghi accommodative monetary policy to sustain growth rate of the Euro zone. Observed so far pairing EURUSD fell -0.46% at 1.3459, after reaching its highest point at 1.3576 and intraday lows at 1.3456 daily. Overall the EURUSD fell 100 pips since Draghi speech

When asked about the euro exchange rate rose sharply particularly against the Japanese Yen, Draghi apparently still not overly concerned with the level of the current Euro exchange rate, but did not rule out the assessment if there is excessive strengthening future. According to the appreciation of the Euro Draghi is now a sign of the growing confidence of investors toward Europe, and it should change in the exchange rate will continue to reflect the fundamentals.

Pound Stable In Positive Territory Post Testimonial Carney

Sterling was steady trading in positive territory despite the euro currency that usually goes in the direction of weakening. Strengthening Sterling and Euro vs Dollar is happening in the middle of testimony to come BoE Governor, Mark Carney gave testimony in front of the parliament and indicate no radical change in monetary policy at the central bank. Even the publication of market participants respond positively to these Carney testimony of seeing the end of unconventional monetary easing from the BoE (QE stimulus), so pairing GBPUSD soared to intraday highs 1.5765, before correction to the 1.5702 level so far. Pound finally weakened after the end of monetary easing clarify Mr.Carney is actually a long-term target, not in the near future. Mr. Carney will take over as the Governor of the BoE in July.

Fed's Evans: New 6.5% Unemployment Rate Will Reached In 2015

The monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve is run very appropriate at this time and will remain accommodative until the economy improves, according to the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Charles Evans in an exclusive interview Thursday. In the interview Evans expressed optimism economic recovery, even though the unemployment rate likely will not reach the level of 6.5% before mid-2015. Fed has set a target of achieving 6.5% before they decided to change the policy of low interest rates. Currently, the U.S. unemployment rate is still perched at the level of 7.9%.

While related to quantitative easing (QE), the Federal Reserve does not set a target date for the end of the program. But Evans argue that if the central bank's bond-buying program may still need to be continued for at least 6 months to 1 year ahead.

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